Encouraged to Cheat? Federal Incentives and Career Concerns at the Sub-national Level as Determinants of Under-Reporting of COVID-19 Mortality in Russia

Abstract This article investigates the determinants and consequences of manipulating COVID-19 statistics in an authoritarian federation using Russian case. It abandons interpretation regime as a unitary actor acknowledges need to account for complex interaction various bureaucratic political players understand spread logic manipulation. Our estimation strategy takes advantage natural experiment where onset pandemic adjourned national referendum enabling new presidential terms Putin. To implement rescheduled referendum, Putin needed sub-national elites manufacture favourable convince public that was under control. While virtually all regions engaged data manipulation, there substantial variation degree misreporting. A third this can be explained by asynchronous schedule regional governors’ elections, winning which depends almost exclusively on support from federal authorities.